Say it enough and it happens
NewsBusters and affiliate The Business & Media Institute have been reporting for many months the continuous, bearish assessments of economic gloom and doom by America's press.
Of course, this all comes despite 24 straight quarters of Gross Domestic Product growth, 50 consecutive months of job gains, higher wages for virtually all Americans, and last month's consumer spending explosion.
I knew that Liberal press members would do anything to help out liberal politicians, but I thought that this was even beneath them.
How sad for those that will lose their jobs as a result of the recession that likely will only come as a media driven self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course, left-leaning press members will conveniently recall their Machiavelli to assuage any guilt they might feel, assuming they have a conscience that is.
Until I saw this
The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.
Suddenly we are in a recession.
But a reserve member of the committee that sets US rates warned that it could do little about the below-trend growth expected in the next six months.
Oh, so now we are in a recession based off of what MIGHT happen, not what has happened.
But NBER president Martin Feldstein denied Merrill's claims.
"I think we're not in a recession now," he told CNBC.
"But I think there is a serious risk that it could get worse and we could see an actual downturn," he added.
So there hasn’t been any actual downturn, but they sure can feel it coming. WOW, these guys are unbelievable. Thought I would provide the articles definition of a recession.
The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months".
So now we make huge statements based off of what we think is going to happen, or how we feel it might go in the next few months, not off the facts. Do they have no shame?
Let’s look at some of the things we do know. Housing foreclosures are up due to the idiots who went out and paid way too much for houses in overinflated housing markets and financed them with subprime loans. Most subprimes let you only pay interest for the first few years, then the payments increase. Guess what, it’s been a few years since subprimes hit the market. Credit card defaults are also up, you think it might be the same people? These people were doing what my mom liked to call “living the Tiffany lifestyle on a K-Mart budget” It won’t last and soon the check comes due at the end of the evening.
There is growth everywhere else, and what we are seeing is a market correction in those overinflated areas.
posted by davis14633 at 06:11
4 Comments:
One of the most significant realities of politics is that the rank and file voter votes pocket book over all but the most significant political issues. Observe what Bill Clinton was able to get away with during his presidency since supposedly the economy and stock market were booming during much of that time. Forget the fact that tech was booming due in large part to a synthetic tech cycle caused by y2k driven upgrading and buying, which of course saw it crash shortly after 2000 due to everything being current. Also, forget the fact that many of those fabulous corporate profits have since been restated as far back as the mid 90's. I know I'm rambling, so back to the point about the media, I had observed that during the Bush/Gore election that energy prices that year had spiked across the board, meaning natural gas, electric, and petroleum, and the fed had increased the fed fund rate 6 times beginning in June of 99 and ending in May 2000 with mortgage rates and corporate borrowing rates following along. Given these jumps in the underlying cost of almost everything as well as the impact on corporate borrowing and project hurdle rates, my expectation was that inflation had to rise and the economy had to slow. My observation was that the media didn't say a word about the slowing economy until after the November election and really right after Bush was declared the winner, then suddenly the media began talking about a weakening economy and a possible recession. I felt there was a very clear, although it would be subtle if you weren't kind of watching for it, point where they were essentially not saying negative things and then began saying negative things. As far as the current situation, I believe the media has every incentive and every opportunity to paint a negative picture of the economy, and given their politics and the "vote pocket book priority" of voters, they will jump in there with both feet as this will help the democrats sweep into office. Only the weakness of the leading democratic candidates will give the republicans any chance. I believe Hillary is not going to appeal to the everyday voter very much, and I find this irony amusing that the most prejudiced people I have ever met are elderly died-in-the-wool union based democrats that I don't believe will vote for Obama, so the democrats usual non-mainstream candidate selection will be their main problem in destroying the republicans. On the subject of the opportunity to show a bad economy under Bush, I have had numerous conversations with the very large investment banking firms as well as with a large financial advisor and everyone shakes their head about this credit scandal and how stupid and greedy these companies were to take on so much risk, but these same people can't even say at this point, after all of the billions of write-off's so far, what the final tally is expected to be since the exposure is still difficult to quantify. Additionally, while mortgage and corporate borrowing rates are still low, energy prices are still high with petroleum going through the roof, and building materials and labor costs are still very high as well, so how can inflation and borrowing rates stay low with global demand for so many fundamental building materials being so high. There is an expectation that the fed will have to go back to raising the fed funds rate to counter inflation, which will cause another negative impact on the housing market and all of the lost economic growth that goes with that market. In the end, I believe that along with some significant and real economic issues and the medias desire to help the democrats to gain politically, that the economy will get weaker and there will be plenty of opportunity to associate a weak economy with the republicans.
Well, my aggressive growth stocks have been nose-diving for the last month, but that's more indicative of my poor stock-picking skills than an impending recession.
Mark my words: if a Democrat is elected to the White House in November, we'll suddenly be in the best market since 1925. If, on the other hand, another of those evil, nasty, mean, heartless Republicans is elected to the White House, we'll be on a sure-fire path for another Great Depression.
I used to wonder if the press realizes how transparent they have become in their machinations. Then I realized they're so arrogant, they just don't care; Dan Rather was a prime example of that.
In stereo!
Vizigoth and I will be taking our psychotic...er, I mean psychic act on the road, soon... =oP
My personal wish is that Billary gets the nominaton. She has such a negative rating,plus she would fire up Republican base, she will never be able to carry the general election.
Although, none of the republican candidates get me fired up either, so I'm voting the Bill/Opus ticket in 08'
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