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Wednesday, March 15, 2006

A Distant Rumble

It didn't take a genius to see this coming.

Harley-Davidson has already ridden the full eight seconds of their fad market. As they lose those baby boomers, they're going to need to appeal to a new market--and their half-baked idea of creating a replacement fad clique from the "untapped" minority demographic isn't going to hold water, either. It's simply not sustainable economically.

What they have to do is appeal to a younger market. I'll wager a paycheck that more than one person in their upper management has realized that, but they've chosen to pull an ostrich routine with this "market to minorities" idiocy. That's because the real solution will cost a fortune in capital outlay, and they know it.

The key is certainly in attracting new riders, but the demographic they really want is younger male riders--which translates to intially less affluent but longer-term customers. However, that demographic is strongly attracted to maintenance-free, reliable vehicles; they've grown up with very deep market penetration by the Japanese, and there is an ingrained cultural bias against American manufactured vehicles in general, (not without reason, I might add). The sort of folks who have traditionally purchased Harley's products, however, (and I have several friends who own them), tend to be competent wrenches who don't mind performing maintenance and minor repairs on a regular basis.

As a broad marketing strategy, that sucks swamp water.

Outdated manufacturing techniques and antiquated designs cannot compete over the long haul with what is coming out of Europe and Asia, and certainly not at the inflated market prices produced by the outrageously restrictive tariff protections which Harley-Davidson has been enjoying for the past couple of decades. The fad has sustained them to this point, while sheltering the company from the major investment in R&D and manufacturing upgrades that every other player in the industry deals with as a matter of course. Sooner or later, Harley-Davidson's executive management must admit to themselves that those incredible profit margins are an aberration, not a functional business model.

It is worth noting that the Harley-owned Buell line of sport motorcycles has developed and built some incredibly advanced concepts into their machines. From aircraft-style fuel frames to zero torsional load brake rotors, they've consistently pushed the envelope. But in their infinite "wisdom," Harley-Davidson executives have consistently, mind-bogglingly insisted that these beautifully-built Buell products must be saddled with that ancient, overweight, top-heavy, poorly designed clunker of an engine from the 1200 Sportster. I've seen some really bad engineering and marketing decisions before, but that has to be in the all-time top five.

It's a real shame, too; Buell XB bikes fitted with that lovely Porsche-designed engine from the V-Rod would've dominated the GP racing circuit for several years and rocked the Jap manufacturers back on their heels. It's yet another example of Harley-Davidson executives being fixated on that right-hand column. They missed one of the greatest marketing opportunities in history, simply because they didn't want to outlay research and development capital or licensing fees.

Either you adapt to the market and learn to compete on a level playing field, or you die. That's the harsh reality of capitalism--protected market or no. You've had your days of wine and roses, Harley. Time to suck it up and join the real world.

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