Dragon Rising

John Derbyshire turns a critical eye on China's new frontiers:

From the point of view of African elites, China’s attentions come refreshingly free of any concerns about human rights or economic transparency. Sahr Johnny, the Sierra Leonean ambassador in Beijing, noted that: "They just come and do it. We don't start to hold meetings about environmental impact assessment, human rights, bad governance and good governance. I'm not saying that's right, I'm just saying Chinese investment is succeeding because they don't set high benchmarks."

A September 2004 U.N. Security Council resolution against Sudan had to be watered down under threat of a Chinese veto. (Satisfied at last, China abstained on the final vote.) The U.S. and European Union have arms embargoes against Sudan; China has three arms factories near the Sudanese capital, happily churning out weapons for the government forces.

The Chinese have learned the lessons of economic imperialism well. They're still lean and hungry, while the United States is busy trying to satiate a home-grown crop of fat hippies and anarchists.

Bill Buckley agrees:

It is embarrassing to proclaim, in October, that the United States will “dissuade” any power that seeks military leverage in space, and then to confront, in January, evidence that exactly what we set out to prevent has happened. Why was it beyond U.S. intelligence to foresee Chinese progress along these lines? And if it is deducible from street knowledge of Chinese ambitions, prowess, and technological savoir-faire that China was likely to develop the capability of projecting a missile 500 miles into space, why did President Bush expose himself, and the United States, to charges of arrogance, and then impotence?

The Chinese have grasped something that is escaping us--or at least distasteful to "modern American sensibilities": space is the new New World. You can't control it, you can't regulate it, and you can't arbitrarily claim it. That's because nobody knows what's really out there. All you can do is unleash the corporate hounds and try to be the first guy to plant a flag--a point that seems to bounce repeatedly off the hard skulls of the NASA technocrats and privilege brokers in Washington. It's not about who can produce the most royal decrees; it's about who can build the first strip mine and factory complex.

While a truly capitalist society has a huge long-term advantage in frontierism and exploration, China has an ace of their own to play: nominally profitable, state-owned industries. In the short term, they can leverage that advantage much more effectively than the Stalinist (and post-Stalinist, for that matter) Soviet Union ever managed. If they can get a foot-hold early on, it may be too late for us to ever catch up.

In less than a century, space will begin to realize its long-hyped potential as the "final frontier." We must decide now whether our children and grandchildren will be in control of their own destinies... or if they'll have to learn Chinese to land a decent job.