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Friday, May 08, 2015

Oopsies!

The Conservatives swept the elections in the U.K. last night, achieving an absolute majority in Parliament and thus forming a single party Government. This after months of the pollsters and talking heads assuring everyone it was too close to call.

Fisher said polling had consistently overestimated the Labour vote – and that had been happening since the 1970s. “Polling companies have done a lot of work to try to counteract this, but it keeps happening. There is a pro-Labour and anti-Conservative bias in polls.”

That is a point backed by research done by Rob Hayward, a former Tory MP, on the byelections and the local and Euro elections that took place last year and the polling that preceded them.

The Conservative vote was understated by 1.8% and the Labour vote overstated by 3.7% in byelections. In local elections, Labour’s share of the vote was overstated by more than five points


In other words, the mass media and pollsters in the U.K. are just like those in the U.S.: Left-leaning and far too fond of consuming their own Kool-Aid. They have forgotten the golden rule of all successful drug dealers: Sell, don't use.

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