Bull
The bull is sick. See that haze forming over its eyes? It won't be long before it can't see the bear coming up behind it -- the very hungry bear.
If you're heavy in equities, I suggest you start tapering towards cash and bonds. I started back January. Ignore the idiots on the television. You want to see what's really going to happen? Read. Mr Roberts knows his stuff.
Is it going to crash tomorrow? I don't know. Probably not. But it is going to crash. The plane can't keep climbing forever, and buying into the top end of a bull market is stupidity of a very high order -- which is why the talking heads are telling you to buy stocks NOWNOWNOW!!! Because they're talking heads. Idiocy is a requirement for the job.
Ignore Mr Roberts if you wish, but remember that when a market crashes, it happens fast, usually in a matter of hours. Those heavy in equities typically take a minimum 20% loss before they can "safe" their investments. If you "safe" your investments today, the market would have to go up nearly another 25% -- an additional quarter of its current record high values -- before you would start "losing" money on missed opportunities for going safe now. Do you think the market is going up another 25% from here? How about 30%? Ask yourself this: is squeezing another 5% out of the top of this curve worth the risk:
History and mathematics say we're near the peak. On the other side is the guy on television wearing a $1,500 suit telling you to put ALL UR MONEYZ! in the stock market right now. He makes his money by convincing you to give him yours. So decide: Suit boy or history and math? Which will it be?
I could be wrong. I can hear the critics now: butbutbut QUANTITATIVE EASING! butbutbut CONSUMER SPENDING butbutbut! Fine, stay in high risk. Let that bet ride for one more spin of the wheel. It's possible the market could climb an additional 25, 35 or even 50 percent from here. But that's playing way out on the very edge of the curve and is highly unlikely. It's your money; do what you want. I'm 80% in cash and bonds as of this week. Nothing to do now but wait for the tears to start flowing...
If you're heavy in equities, I suggest you start tapering towards cash and bonds. I started back January. Ignore the idiots on the television. You want to see what's really going to happen? Read. Mr Roberts knows his stuff.
Is it going to crash tomorrow? I don't know. Probably not. But it is going to crash. The plane can't keep climbing forever, and buying into the top end of a bull market is stupidity of a very high order -- which is why the talking heads are telling you to buy stocks NOWNOWNOW!!! Because they're talking heads. Idiocy is a requirement for the job.
Ignore Mr Roberts if you wish, but remember that when a market crashes, it happens fast, usually in a matter of hours. Those heavy in equities typically take a minimum 20% loss before they can "safe" their investments. If you "safe" your investments today, the market would have to go up nearly another 25% -- an additional quarter of its current record high values -- before you would start "losing" money on missed opportunities for going safe now. Do you think the market is going up another 25% from here? How about 30%? Ask yourself this: is squeezing another 5% out of the top of this curve worth the risk:
History and mathematics say we're near the peak. On the other side is the guy on television wearing a $1,500 suit telling you to put ALL UR MONEYZ! in the stock market right now. He makes his money by convincing you to give him yours. So decide: Suit boy or history and math? Which will it be?
I could be wrong. I can hear the critics now: butbutbut QUANTITATIVE EASING! butbutbut CONSUMER SPENDING butbutbut! Fine, stay in high risk. Let that bet ride for one more spin of the wheel. It's possible the market could climb an additional 25, 35 or even 50 percent from here. But that's playing way out on the very edge of the curve and is highly unlikely. It's your money; do what you want. I'm 80% in cash and bonds as of this week. Nothing to do now but wait for the tears to start flowing...
posted by Jar(egg)head at 13:05
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home