All Hail the Conquered Anti-Hero
John Derbyshire paints a frighteningly plausible scenario for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Scarier than John McCain as President of the United States. More frightening that the Clintons back at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And yes, even scarier than Obama.
The way the Democratic ticket is shaking out, I can easily see the first vote at the convention being non-decisive -- and then all bets are off. Let's hope Derb is wrong about this, but I've got an ugly, sneaking suspicion he may be right.
The way the Democratic ticket is shaking out, I can easily see the first vote at the convention being non-decisive -- and then all bets are off. Let's hope Derb is wrong about this, but I've got an ugly, sneaking suspicion he may be right.
posted by Jar(egg)head at 11:20
5 Comments:
Ok, I can envision the scenario of Gore being drafted by the Democratic convention. But the Democratic Party DOES have those Party Elite "Super Delegates" that could swing the choice to one or the other candidate to avoid a failed nomination.
Additionally, it's my opinion that having the Convention pick someone other than the two main combatants, would be a PR disaster for the Democratic Party. Even though it is perfectly legal, perfectly legitimate to the Rules of the Party, and not without clear historical precedence; to your average voter (uneducated and/or inexperienced in the wonky details of the political process) it will smell like undemocratic "backroom politics." That, I think, would sap away support from the majority of voters that doesn't see themselves as members of either Party. If would also give a huge stick the Republicans to beat the Dems over the head with. Their "chosen, not elected" kvetching about the 2000 election would come back to haunt them...but this time with some factual (if largely academic) validity to back it up. If the "chosen, not elected" person were Gore...I think we would actually see some people's heads physically implode from the sheer volume of irony and hypocrisy. Not to mention those stary-eyed Diehard members of the Hillary and Obama cults of personality. I don't think those folks would go quietly.
And now we add Nader into this volatile mix! WOW! A full 3-Ring Circus with all rings performing! Right before space itself collapses under the collective mass of all that leftist messianic egomania. Leaving the Republicans to stand agape and in awe of the gaping black hole they left behind and say "FUCK! We should have nominated Fred Thompson...GODDAMNIT!" But I digress.... :)
Sadly, at the end of the day I'm afraid the reality is going to be far less fun and exciting than the proposed brokered Convention scenario Jar(Egg)head. They may fail to elect on the first ballot...but I feel sure the Party Leadership will intervene to make certain one of the two is the clear winner on the second round.
It is a plot by those GODDAMN COMMUNISTS!
I understand your points, all valid, and I hope you are proven right, not Derbyshire. However, the parts of this scenario that make it so plausible are:
1) Obama and Hillary both carry a severe amount of baggage. Hillary's was created by years of manipulating the system -- and quite masterfully, give her credit. Obama, on the other hand, seems determined -- with the "help" of his racist, asshole of a wife -- to create as much baggage for himself as possible prior to the convention.
2) The Left has an uncanny ability to ignore irony and hypocrisy when it works to their advantage. The majority of the Left is still enraged about the Florida Decision, and the role Nader played in it, eight years on from the event. If they were thinking, rational people, they'd reject the prospect out of hand... which leads to my third point.
3) The Left still sees Gore as imminently electable -- and they may well be right. Never underestimate the motive of revenge. McCain stands a pretty good chance against Hillary or Obama, but would struggle mightily in the northeast and the West Coast against Gore.
There is, however, another possibility, one that walks the line between "chosen" and "elected": a combined Clinton/Gore ticket, or even a Gore/Clinton ticket, though the second possibility is far smaller, in my opinion. It still carries the disadvantage of eight-plus years of stinky political baggage, but the Democratic Convention is historically a pretty emotionally-charged proposition, and eight years of Republican rule is making them desperate for any alternative they believe they can sell to the general electorate.
There are pros and cons to all the scenarios, but I seriously doubt the Dems want to see Obama as their candidate against McCain, especially after all the foot-tasting Obama's camp has been doing for the past few weeks. I think they'll try very hard to avoid that eventuality, and the Clinton machine is still very powerful in the realm of party politics.
In any event, it should prove to be a really entertaining convention to watch. Break out the popcorn! =oP
Popcorn, Popcorn?! Are you serious. The thought makes me nauseous now. If I hadn't already lost my dinner, I likely would. *shudders at the idea and tries to build an impenetrable cube around the thought* Don't make me stop reading your blog, dammit! :)
Okay, everybody except Mad Angel can have popcorn; she gets sardines.
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